Russia’s federal air transport agency has threatened to repossess half of the country’s planes. Meanwhile, Aeroflot Flight 219 ignored a temporary airspace ban and landed in Pyongyang, North Korea on Saturday night. Experts say it is unlikely that Russia will take any action against Aeroflot for violating international sanctions placed upon North Korea by the United Nations Security Council.

Russian Airlines Face Repossession Of Half Their Planes, As Aeroflot Flight Ignores Airspace Ban



Aeroflot Flight Ignores Airspace Ban, Ruling Russian Airlines Faces Repossession Of Half Their Planes

on February 28, 2022 by Gary Leff

The Aeroflot 124 Moscow – New York aircraft turned back mid-flight on Sunday night. Russian planes aren’t forbidden from flying in American territory, but it’s difficult for them to get here without going across EU and Canadian airspace. They flew for 8 hours and ended up back where they began.

Simultaneously, Aeroflot 111 from Miami to Moscow arrived at its destination despite exceeding airspace restrictions. They’re accused of lying by saying that the trip was a humanitarian one rather than a regular commercial one.

Aeroflot 111 should not have been permitted to fly across Canadian airspace, according to a representative for Canada’s transport ministries. “NAV Canada made a mistake this evening and let a forbidden aircraft into Canadian airspace. This shouldn’t have occurred in the first place.”

— February 28, 2022, Aly Sider (@alyrose)

(2/2) We’re starting an investigation into Aeroflot and NAVCAN, an independent aviation navigation service provider, in the run up to this infraction. To avoid future infractions, we shall not hesitate to take necessary enforcement action and other measures.

— February 28, 2022, Transport Canada (@Transport gc)

Leased aircraft must be recalled from Russian airlines as a result of EU sanctions. The aircraft cannot be insured, and spare components are unavailable. This accounts for more than half of all Russian aircraft. Plus, with major Russian banks’ SWIFT communication banned, making the March lease payment would be problematic in any event. A Boeing 737 from Aeroflot’s low-cost airline Pobeda has previously been repossessed in Ireland.

Russian airlines might adopt a “come and get it” attitude to the jets, but they’ll have to comply if they wish to lease planes in the future.

Meanwhile, here’s an intriguing discussion on why Russia is falling short of predictions while Ukraine is exceeding, as well as an argument that Ukraine just needs to hang on to ‘win’ (even, by the way, if Kiev falls). This seems to be a little too optimistic, yet the basic reasons outlining what’s transpired thus far and why might be right.

Why will Russia lose this war?

Much of the “realist” discussion is on viewing Putin’s triumph as “certain.” But how can we be sure?

I’ll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵

February 27, 2022 — Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani)

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